In a world where the federal government's tax policies and trust regulations are cause for concern, Assistant Treasury Minister Andrew Leigh has a more pressing issue on his hands: the impending zombie apocalypse. While his colleagues grapple with economic matters, Leigh's speech on Thursday takes a darker turn, warning of the very real possibility of global extinction. With a grim outlook, he argues that economics, often deemed the 'gloomy science', struggles to address the most existential of questions.
Leigh's address, in honor of the late economist Lyndhurst Giblin, delves into the ultimate scarcity of human existence. He posits that while our species has only existed for a fleeting few hundred thousand years, the sun has billions of years left to burn. In contrast, the potential for human life is vast, with estimates suggesting a staggering one billion-billion future people for every person who has ever lived. This perspective highlights the insignificance of our current struggles in the grand scheme of time and potential.
The economist identifies two significant threats to humanity: nuclear warfare and climate change. However, he argues that the more insidious danger lies in artificial intelligence and synthetic biology. As countries embrace medical advancements and productivity gains from AI, Leigh warns that we may be sowing the seeds of our own destruction. He suggests that modern economies excel at creating dangerous capabilities but fall short in establishing the necessary safeguards to control them.
Leigh's solution involves a two-pronged approach. He advocates for governments to develop policies addressing the 'hazard rate' of new technologies while implementing preventive measures, even for remote dangers. Economists, he believes, must expand their focus beyond equity and efficiency to include survivability. By embracing this expanded role, they can contribute to ensuring humanity's survival in the face of these existential threats.
In a world where the future is uncertain, Leigh's speech serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of our existence. It prompts us to reconsider our priorities and take proactive steps to safeguard our future. As he aptly states, 'Economists have become adept at analyzing equity and efficiency. We now need to bring the same seriousness to survivability.' The challenge is not just to survive but to thrive in a world where the odds of extinction are as high as one in six over the coming century.
